The Middle Grade Landscape

A first look at Middle Grade books published so far in 2024

NEW Dec 2024! I’ll be releasing my wrap-up of 2024 in MG at the end of January, along with a new look at trends from the past decade. You can sign up for the live analysis when I’ll be in conversation with Executive Editor Mallory Kass of Scholastic, sponsored by the Middle Grade Writers Group. Here’s the link to reserve your spot: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-middle-grade-book-publishing-landscape-tickets-1048934951677?aff=odcleoeventsincollection

I’m a Data Analyst by day and a Middle Grade author, well, whenever else I can sneak in some writing time, so combining these two interests seemed like an obvious next step. Plus, I couldn’t find the answers to my questions anywhere else, leaving it to me to do it!

1. How many MG books have been published so far in 2024?

My sample set consists of 147 Middle Grade books published in the US and Canada from Jan 1 through April 30, 2024, which is down from 196 (or -25%) in the same period in 2022, the last time I did this analysis. That includes:

  • 87 “Standard” Novels
  • 26 Graphic Novels
  • 9 Novels in Verse
  • 25 Debuts

You can check out the full list of books here. Did I miss yours? Let me know and I’ll add it! 

2. Who are the top MG publishers?

With the caveat that we’re only 1/3 of the way through the year, Penguin Random House is out to an early lead in terms of MG books published, with 32 of the 147 (about 22%), vaulting past HarperCollins which took the top spot in my 2022 analysis.  

3. What are the most popular MG genres?

It’s not easy to put some books in only one box when it comes to genre (e.g. my new book Valor Wings is set in WW2 with dragons, so…) But with that caveat, my attempt to do just that revealed a huge jump in the already leading Contemporary/Realistic category, taking the biggest bite out of the Fantasy genre (down from 31% in 2022) while nibbling away at Mystery, Sci-Fi, and Horror. The only other category that saw significant gains was Historical Fiction, up from a 9% share two years ago.

4. What’s your Point of View?

As an author, I’m frequently torn about what POV is the best fit for my story. I’ve been hearing for a few years that first person present narratives are gaining in popularity in Middle Grade but was surprised to find that nearly half of books published so far this year used that POV, a big jump from 36% in 2022!

5. How long should my book be?

I hear anecdotally from librarians and teachers that they’re looking for shorter MG books, and the table below shows that publishers are for the most part listening. The notable exceptions are: 1) Nonfiction which is only a sample size of 3 books, and 2) Mystery, which so far this year is driven by new releases from James Ponti and Stuart Gibbs — and, let’s face it, those guys can do whatever they want and kids will snap up their books. I’m still waiting for word counts to become more available and will add those numbers when I update my analysis later this year.

6. What are the genders of MG main characters?

Are we witnessing the slow demise of boys as main characters in middle grade books? From my previous look in 2022, male MCs are down from 30% (2022) to only 25% (2024) of the starring roles so far this year. (Of note: One of the “male” narrators here happens to be a particularly loquacious typewriter, but I’ve included him as one of the guys.)

While the mix of author genders remains basically unchanged from two years ago:

7. When is the best time to publish my book?

When your publisher gives you the release date of your shiny new middle grade novel, you might be curious to see how many other new books may be vying for that limited shelf space. In 2022, there were peaks in early Spring and again in early Fall. It’s a little too early to tell how 2024 will shape up, but here’s a look at 2024 (red) so far vs 2022 (blue): 

Or zooming in a little closer by week, we see releases tend to peak the first Tuesday of each month so far in 2024.

8. Ratings Review

As an author who tries (but mostly fails) to ignore ratings of my books, I’ve had the sense that ratings on Amazon are generally more positive than on Goodreads. Indeed, that played out in the data below where the ratings for nearly all genres were significantly higher on Amazon. This table also ranks the most well-rated genres, which interestingly is almost identical to 2022 with Nonfiction and Sports books near the top and Horror (maybe fittingly?) in the basement. 

9. How diverse is Middle Grade literature?

I’ve loved seeing the explosion of new voices from all different backgrounds and locations around the world telling middle grade stories. So I wanted to start tracking diversity beginning this year, using author race as a measurable (though of course not the only) proxy for that diversification trend. This turned out to be…not as easy as I thought. But after poring through authors’ bios for probably way too long, I present below my rough approximation of author races for the 147 MG books under consideration (left) and, for a point of comparison, the most recent US racial mix (right) as reported on Census.gov.

What did you take away from this data? 

I love hearing from authors how these numbers helped them, such as one who said she gave writing in first person present tense a try and found it unblocked her on a story she’d been stuck on for a long time. If you learned something useful or have questions, feel free to drop me a line! 

For me personally, seeing the perennial popularity of historical fiction helped nudge me into trying it myself, albeit with a little splash of fantasy in my upcoming MG novel that I pitched as “Dunkirk with Dragons” called Valor Wings. I hope you’ll check it out:

Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Valor-Wings-Sam-Subity/dp/1338885030

Goodreads: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/202772956-valor-wings

I plan to send out another update of the 2024 data later this year as more MG books publish. Until then, happy writing and reading!

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